Problem Narrative
With advancements in technology and medicine, the problem of overpopulation has become a reality. The death rate has decreased in many parts of the world and the survival rate has conversely increased. As the world becomes more populated, the earth is reaching its limit in being able to sustain the populations on it. Food and water shortages become a problem. Farmland becomes infertile because it is overworked. There is no room for more people to live as they are being born and there is even less room for burial as they die. While nature used to be harsher on the human population in terms of survival, it seems humanity is slowly exacting its revenge by creating harsher conditions for nature to achieve its purpose. As a result, a different set of conditions have arisen to make it hard for the human race to survive.
Behavior Over Time
Some variables in the problem of overpopulation include the basics of birth rate, survival rate, and death rate. Some others include population density, availability of cropland, and availability of water, among others. This issue has far-reaching contributors and impacts.
Birth rate:
This graph shows that while the crude birth rate is decreasing slightly over this ten-year span, it is more likely that women are able to (and do) have children over a wider range of ages than used to happen. This is because of advancements in fertility drugs and treatments.
This graph shows the world fertility rates. The areas where death rates are probably higher most likely also correspond to the areas where the fertility rates are higher.
Survival rate:
As can be seen in this graph, even in just the last 110 years, the overall survival rate has greatly increased and humans are living longer as well.
The graph below compares birth rate to death rate over a period of 60 years. While the birth rate is declining, so is the death rate. Also, the death rate is clearly much lower than the birth rate - resulting in more births than deaths.
Here is also a graph that has the population growth from 1950 as well as projections for continued growth until 2050.
Population break-down for the world:
These are just a few of the variables and how they seem to change over time.
Relevance of a Systems Viewpoint
The issue of overpopulation can be observed very effectively from a systems viewpoint. First, it is clear that population growth covers a long time horizon as the world's human population has fluctuated over an extremely long period of time. Second, many factors (or actors) have an impact on population growth, and therefore, overpopulation. Some of these actors include advancements in medicine, better industrialization that takes some of the strain off workers, structural improvements in housing, even the development of structured government and the use of treaties among nations. Third, policy resistance and policy debates seem to go hand-in-hand on this topic. There has been evidence of policy resistance in China where the government regulated the number of children couples were allowed to have. Parents found ways to get around the law or simply got rid of girl babies. Now, young men who are at the age where they should be thinking about getting married and having children do not have enough young women to be their spouses. Because of these obvious issues (there are probably many more issues that run deeper), any country that might be considering limiting their population in this way would have some serious consequences to observe. Lastly, the birth, death, and survival rates alone show evidence of feedback dynamics. The lowered birth rate would lead to more of a balancing feedback and the lowered death rates and increased survival rates lead to a reinforcing feedback.
Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed
For this study, the causes of overpopulation and how to counteract its negative effects (and how that will help policymakers find solutions) will be addressed. Some of the questions that will be asked and hopefully answered will include the following: Is there one factor that has had the most impact on population growth? Are there many policies that have attempted to address this problem? What can be done to help reduce this problem around the world? Hopefully, creating and using systems dynamics, causal loop diagrams, and simulations will help us discover the answers to these questions.
With advancements in technology and medicine, the problem of overpopulation has become a reality. The death rate has decreased in many parts of the world and the survival rate has conversely increased. As the world becomes more populated, the earth is reaching its limit in being able to sustain the populations on it. Food and water shortages become a problem. Farmland becomes infertile because it is overworked. There is no room for more people to live as they are being born and there is even less room for burial as they die. While nature used to be harsher on the human population in terms of survival, it seems humanity is slowly exacting its revenge by creating harsher conditions for nature to achieve its purpose. As a result, a different set of conditions have arisen to make it hard for the human race to survive.
Behavior Over Time
Some variables in the problem of overpopulation include the basics of birth rate, survival rate, and death rate. Some others include population density, availability of cropland, and availability of water, among others. This issue has far-reaching contributors and impacts.
Birth rate:
This graph shows that while the crude birth rate is decreasing slightly over this ten-year span, it is more likely that women are able to (and do) have children over a wider range of ages than used to happen. This is because of advancements in fertility drugs and treatments.
This graph shows the world fertility rates. The areas where death rates are probably higher most likely also correspond to the areas where the fertility rates are higher.
Survival rate:
As can be seen in this graph, even in just the last 110 years, the overall survival rate has greatly increased and humans are living longer as well.
The graph below compares birth rate to death rate over a period of 60 years. While the birth rate is declining, so is the death rate. Also, the death rate is clearly much lower than the birth rate - resulting in more births than deaths.
Here is also a graph that has the population growth from 1950 as well as projections for continued growth until 2050.
Population break-down for the world:
These are just a few of the variables and how they seem to change over time.
Relevance of a Systems Viewpoint
The issue of overpopulation can be observed very effectively from a systems viewpoint. First, it is clear that population growth covers a long time horizon as the world's human population has fluctuated over an extremely long period of time. Second, many factors (or actors) have an impact on population growth, and therefore, overpopulation. Some of these actors include advancements in medicine, better industrialization that takes some of the strain off workers, structural improvements in housing, even the development of structured government and the use of treaties among nations. Third, policy resistance and policy debates seem to go hand-in-hand on this topic. There has been evidence of policy resistance in China where the government regulated the number of children couples were allowed to have. Parents found ways to get around the law or simply got rid of girl babies. Now, young men who are at the age where they should be thinking about getting married and having children do not have enough young women to be their spouses. Because of these obvious issues (there are probably many more issues that run deeper), any country that might be considering limiting their population in this way would have some serious consequences to observe. Lastly, the birth, death, and survival rates alone show evidence of feedback dynamics. The lowered birth rate would lead to more of a balancing feedback and the lowered death rates and increased survival rates lead to a reinforcing feedback.
Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed
For this study, the causes of overpopulation and how to counteract its negative effects (and how that will help policymakers find solutions) will be addressed. Some of the questions that will be asked and hopefully answered will include the following: Is there one factor that has had the most impact on population growth? Are there many policies that have attempted to address this problem? What can be done to help reduce this problem around the world? Hopefully, creating and using systems dynamics, causal loop diagrams, and simulations will help us discover the answers to these questions.
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