Overpopulation of Las Vegas

Problem Narrative

With advancements in technology and medicine, the problem of overpopulation has become a reality throughout the world.  This has even become true in the United States.  One such location is Las Vegas, NV.  The population in Las Vegas has increased from under 200,000 to nearly 1,600,000 in just the forty years between 1960 and 2000 (see graph below).    While nature used to be harsher on the human population in terms of survival, it seems humanity is slowly exacting its revenge by creating harsher conditions for nature to achieve its purpose.  As a result, a different set of conditions have arisen to make it hard for the human race to survive.



Behavior Over Time

Some variables in the problem of Las Vegas's overpopulation include the tourism industry, living rates, unemployment rates, and availability of water, among others.  This issue has far-reaching contributors and impacts.

Relevance of a Systems Viewpoint

The issue of overpopulation can be observed very effectively from a systems viewpoint.  First, it is clear that population growth covers a long time horizon as the human population has fluctuated over an extremely long period of time, and Las Vegas's population has greatly increased over the last fifty years.  Second, many actors have an impact on population growth, and therefore, overpopulation.  Some of these actors include tourists, entertainment industry workers, residents, and employers.  Third, policy resistance and policy debates seem to go hand-in-hand on this topic.  Housing prices have gone down the drain in the last few years but that has not deterred people from moving to Las Vegas.  Despite officials' calls for limited water, residents and tourists continue to overuse the resources of the area.  Lastly, influx and outflow of tourists, residents, and employees show evidence of feedback dynamics.  The influx of tourists is also an outflow when their vacations are finished - demonstrating a balancing feedback and the lowered cost of living lead to more people moving to Las Vegas and lead to a reinforcing feedback.

Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed

For this study, the causes of overpopulation in Las Vegas and how to counteract its negative effects (and how that will help policymakers find solutions) will be addressed.  Some of the questions that will be asked and hopefully answered will include the following: Is there one factor that has had the most impact on population growth in this area?  Are there many policies that have attempted to address this problem or has the problem even been observed and noted?  What can be done to help reduce this problem?  Hopefully, creating and using systems dynamics, causal loop diagrams, and simulations will help us discover the answers to these questions.

Dynamic Hypothesis

The first reason for some of Vegas's overpopulation problems lie in its dependence on the tourist industry.  The following loop demonstrates how tourism plays a role in the city's growth and sustenance.

As can be seen in the above CLD, as the tourist industry brings in more customers, it creates more jobs for residents.  The tourism industry as a booming business and the jobs that business create are intended consequences in this system.  No town wants to go extinct.  These added jobs then invite more people to move to Vegas, as shown in the following diagrams.

As more residents move to the Las Vegas area, water availability goes down.  This would invite fewer people from moving here.  However, there would likely be a delay between scarcity and desirability owing to the fact that many residents might not realize the scarcity right away.  The scarcity of water in the area is an unintended consequence of the tourism industry that leads to more residents in the Vegas area.

Now, with the first two loops and a new loop added in, we can see that many of the variables in this diagram have something to do with the residents of the area.  An increase in residents decreases the amount of water and the amount of jobs in the area.  However, with more people in the area, the tourism industry is booming and more jobs are created - leading to more people seeing their opportunity and moving.  The rise in unemployment is another unintended consequence in this system.

 Now, finally, we have the full causal loop diagram for this issue, with at least the most visible factors that are connected to overpopulation.  This last loop is less necessary, but as gambling is a very large part of the tourism industry in Las Vegas, I felt it needed to be included.  The money coming in from the gambling business is an intended consequence.  Also in this final diagram is the cost of living variable as exogenous.  The other variables in the diagram did not seem to particularly affect the cost of living, but the cost of living affects how many people have a desire to move to Las Vegas.

Rent Controls

This is what I have, but I'm positive I've missed something.  I only have 9 variables and 5 loops.

Overpopulation

Problem Narrative

With advancements in technology and medicine, the problem of overpopulation has become a reality.  The death rate has decreased in many parts of the world and the survival rate has conversely increased.  As the world becomes more populated, the earth is reaching its limit in being able to sustain the populations on it.  Food and water shortages become a problem.  Farmland becomes infertile because it is overworked.  There is no room for more people to live as they are being born and there is even less room for burial as they die.  While nature used to be harsher on the human population in terms of survival, it seems humanity is slowly exacting its revenge by creating harsher conditions for nature to achieve its purpose.  As a result, a different set of conditions have arisen to make it hard for the human race to survive.

Behavior Over Time

Some variables in the problem of overpopulation include the basics of birth rate, survival rate, and death rate.  Some others include population density, availability of cropland, and availability of water, among others.  This issue has far-reaching contributors and impacts.

Birth rate:



This graph shows that while the crude birth rate is decreasing slightly over this ten-year span, it is more likely that women are able to (and do) have children over a wider range of ages than used to happen.  This is because of advancements in fertility drugs and treatments.

This graph shows the world fertility rates.  The areas where death rates are probably higher most likely also correspond to the areas where the fertility rates are higher.

Survival rate:

As can be seen in this graph, even in just the last 110 years, the overall survival rate has greatly increased and humans are living longer as well.

The graph below compares birth rate to death rate over a period of 60 years.  While the birth rate is declining, so is the death rate.  Also, the death rate is clearly much lower than the birth rate - resulting in more births than deaths.



Here is also a graph that has the population growth from 1950 as well as projections for continued growth until 2050.


Population break-down for the world:


These are just a few of the variables and how they seem to change over time.

Relevance of a Systems Viewpoint

The issue of overpopulation can be observed very effectively from a systems viewpoint.  First, it is clear that population growth covers a long time horizon as the world's human population has fluctuated over an extremely long period of time.  Second, many factors (or actors) have an impact on population growth, and therefore, overpopulation.  Some of these actors include advancements in medicine, better industrialization that takes some of the strain off workers, structural improvements in housing, even the development of structured government and the use of treaties among nations.  Third, policy resistance and policy debates seem to go hand-in-hand on this topic.  There has been evidence of policy resistance in China where the government regulated the number of children couples were allowed to have.  Parents found ways to get around the law or simply got rid of girl babies.  Now, young men who are at the age where they should be thinking about getting married and having children do not have enough young women to be their spouses.  Because of these obvious issues (there are probably many more issues that run deeper), any country that might be considering limiting their population in this way would have some serious consequences to observe. Lastly, the birth, death, and survival rates alone show evidence of feedback dynamics.  The lowered birth rate would lead to more of a balancing feedback and the lowered death rates and increased survival rates lead to a reinforcing feedback.

Study Objective and Questions to be Addressed

For this study, the causes of overpopulation and how to counteract its negative effects (and how that will help policymakers find solutions) will be addressed.  Some of the questions that will be asked and hopefully answered will include the following: Is there one factor that has had the most impact on population growth?  Are there many policies that have attempted to address this problem?  What can be done to help reduce this problem around the world?  Hopefully, creating and using systems dynamics, causal loop diagrams, and simulations will help us discover the answers to these questions.